Mixed 3 month rainfall outlook - BOM


28 August 2013


Mixed 3 month rainfall outlook - BOM

The keenly anticipated three month rainfall outlook, released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), continues to favour an increased chance of above median falls in south eastern Australia, while the outlook for northern Australia and southern WA is relatively neutral, except for the Top End.

According to the BOM, the chance of exceeding median rainfall for almost all of NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and the eastern portion of SA is 60% or greater, and exceeds 70% through central Victoria. After a relatively wet and mild winter for most of the south east, the prospect for above median falls throughout spring will be very welcome for many producers – hopefully continuing to provide improvement in feed and water conditions after a very tough 2012-13. Given the wet conditions across many southern regions throughout winter, initial spring growth in expected to be very good, albeit once warmer temperatures start to kick-in.

While the 60% chance of exceeding median falls for the next three months will be welcome news for the drier parts of NSW, especially the western third of the state,  the very dry conditions of the past 12 months continue to create significant pressure upon feed, crop and water supplies.

For drought ravaged northern Australia, especially throughout a large swathe of Queensland, the latest outlook is largely neutral, and sheds little light upon the prospects for the 2013-14 wet season. While the southern third of the state has been assigned a 55-60% chance of exceeding median falls, many producers will be hoping substantial falls are received soon, providing a much needed boost to struggling crops and pastures.

In WA, the overall prospect is also neutral, with a large portion of the state assigned a 45-55% chance of exceeding median falls between September and November, with some coastal regions slightly higher.

Overall, the rainfall outlook for the next three months should be viewed as mildly positive for the livestock markets, underpinned by the forecast for the continuation of above median falls for the south eastern corner. The crucial outlook for the northern Australian wet season for 2013 -14 remains somewhat uncertain.



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