National flock to continue its recovery

10 February 2012

Australia’s sheep flock is forecast to grow to 77.4 million head in 2012 as favourable seasonal conditions remain across most sheep producing regions, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s 2012 sheep industry projections – mid-season update. At the same time, as a consequence of the larger flock, more lambs and sheep are expected to be available for processing during 2012, increasing supply for both domestic and export markets.

After declining in both 2010 and 2011, lamb production is forecast to increase to 424,000 tonnes cwt in 2012, the same volume as 2009. Mutton production is also expected to grow, but is still likely to be the second lowest annual volume on record.

This increase in lamb supplies is expected to cause an easing in prices from the record levels of 2011, although demand from major overseas markets should maintain support in the market. Ongoing export growth in the coming years is expected to result in over half of Australian lamb production being exported within the projection period to 2016.

Total lamb exports are forecast to increase to a calendar year record of 171,500 tonnes swt, with production growth the key to supporting this volume. The Middle East is expected to remain the largest export destination for Australian lamb, growing to 37,200 tonnes swt, followed by the US, at 36,300 tonnes swt, and Greater China, which has been the fastest growing market in recent years, at 32,700 tonnes swt.

Mutton exports, forecast to grow to 85,600 tonnes swt, will remain dominated by shipments to the Middle East, which is expected to take almost half of all shipments, at 41,400 tonnes swt.

The live sheep trade is assumed to begin to recover from the historical low of 2011 with a greater number of sheep available for the trade, forecast to reach 2.6 million head. 

For the full projections report, see www.mla.com.au/sheepprojections.

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