US cattle herd falls to 60 year low

03 February 2012

The US cattle herd has fallen to 90.77 million head, its lowest level since 1952, according to the 1 January 2012 Cattle Inventory report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The 2.1% decline over the past year was largely attributed to severe drought conditions across the southern states of the US, and associated higher turnoff.

The 2.1% official decline in the herd exceeded most analysts’ expectations, with pre-report estimates anticipating a 1.5% year-on-year decline to 91.26 million head. Of the cattle categories reported for 2012, the main decline was in beef cows, which shrunk 3.1% year-on-year, to 29.88 million head, while “other heifers” declined 2%, to 9.65 million head.

Two figures also of significance for the medium term outlook of the US beef industry was the increase in the number of heifers retained as beef cow replacements, up 1.4% to 5.2 million head, along with a 1.1% decline in the US calf crop for 2011. While the increase in the replacement heifer numbers indicates that the herd decline may stabilise in the coming year, it also means fewer heifers will be available for slaughter. Additionally, the decline in the calf crop for 2011 will maintain the tight the cattle market conditions, helping to sustain the historically high cattle prices.

At 35.31 million head, the US calf crop for 2011 was the lowest since 1950, with 72.8% born during the first half of 2011.

The main contributors to the larger than anticipated decline for 2012 were the southern states of Texas (11.9 million head) and Oklahoma (4.5 million head), with total herd numbers contracting 11% and 12%, respectively, on the previous year.

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