7.5-8. Australian cattle industry projections - beef exports South East Asia
7.5 Indonesia
The recent announcements by the Indonesian Government regarding the allocation of import permits for beef in 2012 will limit Australian shipments to the market. Exports are projected at 30,000 tonnes swt, down 24% on 2011 volumes – despite continued growth in underlying demand for imported beef.
In 2011, Australian beef and veal exports to Indonesia totalled 39,590 tonnes swt – a decline of 18% on the previous year, but still the third highest year on record behind 2010 and 2009. Just over 38% of exports for the year was manufacturing beef, with the other major cuts including blade (13%) and thick flank/knuckle (10%).
Looking at market fundamentals for 2012, the Indonesian market continues to provide a positive outlook for Australian beef exporters. This outlook is constrained by restrictions in issuing import permits. Indonesia has one of the highest projected economic growth rates for 2012, at 6.3% according tothe IMF, which should continue to deliver improved incomes to consumers. This bright economic outlook, coupled with an expanding 240 million population, should continue to see demand for protein products increase.
7.6 Other South East Asia
Many of the markets that make up South East Asia (excluding Indonesia) took a record, or near to record, volume of Australian beef in 2011. Exports for the past year increased to the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, with total exports to the four markets reaching 47,600 tonnes swt, an increase of 18% from the previous year.
While each market has its own particular features and drivers, the overall increase to the region is based upon growing incomes and populations and a tight supply of product from other countries (mostly at higher prices).
The largest market in South East Asia after Indonesia is the Philippines. For 2011, Australian beef and veal exports totalled 20,998 tonnes swt – the largest calendar year volume since 1997 (26,543 tonnes swt). According to import figures for January to October, while imports of Australian beef increased 2%, it was offset by large falls from South America (down 40%) and India (down 11%), while volumes of US beef declined 9%. Total imports for the ten month period were back 6% at 82,228 tonnes swt.
Imports for January to October 2011 from New Zealand also increased considerably, up 15%, to 11,684 tonnes swt, while volumes from the EU rose from only 537 tonnes swt in 2010, to just below 2,000 tonnes swt for the first 10 months of 2011.
With the supply of South American, US and New Zealand beef anticipated to be tight again in 2012 and associated prices higher, competition from these producers in the Philippines is expected to remain weak throughout 2012. However, the competitive position of Indian beef is an unknown, and does have the potential to make up any decline in volumes from other markets.
The tighter volumes from traditional suppliers, coupled with a relatively positive outlook for the Philippines market is expected to assist demand for Australian product in 2012. Australian beef and veal exports for 2012 are forecast to increase 10%, to 23,000 tonnes swt.
After considerable growth in 2011, exports to Malaysia are expected to be steady in 2012. Shipments to Malaysia increased 23% in 2011, to 14,436 tonnes swt, with 2012’s forecast to remain at 14,500 tonnes swt.
Competition from Indian beef, whose exports are anticipated to increase in 2012, is expected to limit further growth in Australia’s shipments to Malaysia. For the first 10 months of 2011, Malaysian imports of Indian beef totalled 81,494 tonnes swt – an increase of 13% on the previous year. This continues a four-year trend of rising Indian beef imports, which has impacted shipments from all other suppliers, with the exception of Australia. In contrast, imports of Australian beef for the same period totalled 11,933 tonnes swt – up 28% on the corresponding period in 2010.
For Singapore, exports in 2011 increased 27%, to a calendar year record 9,659 tonnes swt. This was largely made up of manufacturing beef (16% of total shipments), neck (14%), thick flank/knuckle (12%), striploin (11%) and cube roll (6%).
A very competitive market, albeit small in terms of total import volumes, 2011 saw imported volumes increase from Australia, the US and Brazil, while New Zealand slipped slightly and Uruguay declined. Imports for January to October in 2011 totalled a historically high 22,127 tonnes swt. Australia captured 39% market share, ahead of New Zealand (24%), Brazil (21%) and the US (6%).
For 2012, some of this growth to Singapore is expected to be consolidated, but unlikely to stay at the record highs of 2011. Shipments in 2012 are forecast to contract 7% year-on-year, to 9,000 tonnes swt – but still the second highest calendar year volume on record.
A comparatively small market for Australian beef, exports to Thailand in 2012 are forecast to be steady at 2,500 tonnes swt, following a 36% increase in 2011.
7.7 Taiwan
2011 was a record year for Australian beef exports to Taiwan, increasing 19% on the previous year, to 36,748 tonnes swt. Assisted by a decline in competition from the US, due largely to an ongoing food safety issue, shipments for the year surpassed the previous calendar year record of 36,500 tonnes swt set 19 years prior, in 1992.
According to Taiwanese import statistics for the first nine months of 2011, imports of Australian beef increased 10% year-on-year. In contrast, lower import volumes were registered from the US (down 10%), New Zealand (down 1%) and Canada (down 65%). With the US and New Zealand accounting for the bulk of the competition into the market, total Taiwanese beef imports for the first nine months of 2011 declined 1%, to 65,663 tonnes swt.
Reflecting on Australia’s export performance in 2011, the 19% growth in shipments was in chilled beef, which increased 204% on the previous year, to 4,326 tonnes swt. This is a market which traditionally accepts mainly shin shank, which made up 34% of total exports in 2011. However, shipments for 2011 also contained large volumes of blade (17%), manufacturing beef (14%) and intercostals (12%).
As a traditional and very stable market for Australian beef exports, volumes in 2012 are anticipated to reach 35,000 tonnes swt – slipping back 5% on 2011’s volumes. However, the decline in 2012 is much more a reflection of the unexpected record volume in 2011, and 35,000 tonnes swt should still be considered a very good export performance.
7.8 China and Hong Kong
Australian beef and veal exports to China and Hong Kong during 2011 increased 32% on the previous year, to a combined total of 16,623 tonnes swt. Both markets registered calendar year records, with China up 38% year-on-year, to 7,754 tonnes swt, while volumes to Hong Kong jumped 26%, to 8,869 tonnes swt.
With 11 months of import data for 2011, total Chinese beef imports contracted 18%, with a 19% fall in chilled volumes – which make up almost 98% of total imports. The main reason behind the decline was an 80% (6,000 tonnes swt) decline in imports from Brazil, reportedly due to the tighter supplies of beef from Brazil and associated higher prices. For the same period, Chinese imports of Australian beef and veal increased 35%, to 6,883 tonnes swt.
Manufacturing beef made up 36% of all exports to China in 2011, with shin/shank the second highest cut at 24%. The next major cut shipped was striploin and brisket, at 8% and 6%, respectively.
For Hong Kong, it was a surge in frozen product that provided the impetus for the 26% rise in Australian beef and veal exports for 2011, with chilled beef shipments only increasing marginally. Shipments for the year were dominated by three main cuts – shin shank (32%), striploins (17%) and thick flank/knuckle (18%).
In 2012, Australian beef and veal exports to China are forecast to increase 29% year-on-year, to 10,000 tonnes swt. For Hong Kong, growth is expected to be a more moderate 13%, also at 10,000 tonnes swt.
Read more
Print this page
Go back to top