Forecasts
Each February and August, MLA publishes the Australian sheep industry projections providing a comprehensive outlook on the sheep industry including forecasts for the national flock, sheep and lamb supply and exports over a five year horizon.
Sheep industry projections mid-season update - February 2012
The mid-season update includes forecasts for:
- A combination of all-time high lamb prices in 2011, favourable seasons and strong global demand will drive producer optimism in 2012. Consecutive good seasons in the eastern states and drought breaking rain in WA will see the Australian sheep flock continue its early steps toward rejuvenation in 2012.
- Lamb supplies will increase in 2012; therefore prices are expected to be lower than the record levels reached in 2011. However continued strong demand, particularly from export markets, should see good producer returns continue.
- Lamb exports now generate a much higher proportion of income than in previous years, with a record 48.5% of total lamb production sent off shore in 2011. The Middle East was the largest export market with 34,893 tonnes swt (22%), followed by the US, 21%, and the growing Greater China, 18%. These markets are expected to continue to grow, with the US starting to recover in 2012.
-
Live sheep exports are assumed to stabilise after 2011’s decline, in terms of numbers shipped, as more ewes and wethers become available to the trade, particularly later in the year.
-
Mutton exports are also forecast to increase after a decline in 2011, which was due mainly to restricted supply. Strong demand in the Middle East is expected to continue, with over 41,000 tonnes forecast to be shipped to the market in 2012.
Read the sheep industry projections mid-season update
Sheep industry projections mid-year update - August 2011
The positive market conditions for the Australian sheepmeat industry are forecast to continue for the rest of 2011 and beyond. Supplies will increase but remain tight as the flock rebuilds more rapidly than expected.
Read the full mid-year update
Sheep industry projections - February 2011
The sheepmeat industry was expected to experience a year characterised by improved seasonal conditions, rebuilding intentions, relatively high prices, limited world supplies and strong demand (particularly abroad). Producers will continue to face the challenge of holding onto stock for rebuilding, turning off enough lambs and mutton sheep to capitalise on the firm prices, and service debts accumulated during the decade plus drought.
Read the full sheep industry projections 2011 report
More information
Sylvia Athas
Phone: 1800 023 100
Email: marketinfo@mla.com.au
Print this page
Go back to top