MLA 2007 lamb survey
The MLA lamb survey report provides an in-depth analysis of results of the annual MLA lamb producer survey, including the number of producers, ewes mated, lambs marked and lambs to turned off for the coming season, by Merino, first cross and second cross categories.
The following is a summary of the results of the 2007 survey. Order the full report from our online publications database or by contacting MLA on 02 9463 9163 or email marketinfo@mla.com.au
MLA 2007 lamb survey results
Results of the 2007 MLA Lamb Survey reflect the impact of the severe drought, which covered almost all sheep areas through spring to autumn 2006-07. If anything, the national fall of 7-8% in ewes joined and lambs marked is less than was anticipated, as is the 6% decline in lambs to be turned off.
Furthermore, the overall lambing percentage deteriorated by around 1 percentage point, to 82.3%, a smaller fall than had been expected, given the severity of the drought throughout joining, pregnancy and birth, in most cases.
The Survey also suggests that Merino lamb producers do not intend to, or are not in a position to, withhold additional lambs for flock rebuilding, with the national Merino lamb turnoff rate rising from 29.2% to 29.9%. This could reflect the severity of the drought in June, when producers were filling in the questionnaire. Hence, the turnoff rate may be less than predicted by the Survey following the good winter rains, particularly for Merinos.
The Survey puts the fall in new season second cross lamb turnoff at 6% and first cross at 8%, suggesting some retention of additional first cross ewes for second cross production next year.
All states display a decline in lambs marked of 5-11%, except Queensland, which rose from a low base. Similarly, new season lamb turnoff is expected to fall by between 4% and 12% in all states bar WA and Queensland, which have only small increases.
The most noticeable impact of the drought has been in NSW, with an 11-12% fall in both lambs marked and expected turnoff.
Spring remains the primary season for new season turnoff (31% of the total), though many of these lambs are stores, taken back on farm for breeding or growing out. Hence, lamb slaughter is generally much less seasonal, though still with a spring peak followed by summer and autumn, with the least in winter.
The principal year-on-year decline in new season lamb turnoff in 2007-08 is expected to be in spring (down 12% on the previous year).
The main findings from the MLA 2007 lamb survey include:
- The estimated number of lambs on hand at June 2007 dropped 8% on the previous year, to 25.1 million. This included a decline across all lamb categories, with a drop in Merino, first-cross and second-cross lambs of 7%, 8% and 13% respectively.
- The number of ewes joined is estimated to have declined by 7%, to 41.3 million, in the year to autumn 2007.
- Lamb markings between summer 2007 and summer 2008 are also expected to fall by 9%, to 33.9 million.
- The national average lambing percentage is expected to rise slightly - from 84.2% to 82.3%
- Survey results suggest lamb sales from autumn 2007 to autumn 2008 will decline 6% on last year, to 21.6 million head. Similarly, the supply of new season lambs (spring 2007 to autumn 2008) is expected to drop by 6% as well, to 16.7 million.
- The fall in supply reflects the drop in ewe joinings and, hence, lambs marked.
- Despite the higher grain prices, the lamb feedlot sector continued to expand, with 2.4 million lambs expected to be sold from a feedlot in 2006-07 – a rise of 2% on the same time last year.
- This rise is predominately driven by increases in WA and SA, with grain being more accessible to source than in NSW and Victoria, who expect to see falls in lambs sold from feedlots.
- The low availability of fodder and grain and high prices (due to the drought) and growth in feedlots appear to be limiting supplementary feeding of lambs this year, with this feeding regime contributed 32% (6.8 million head) of total lamb turn-off, a decline of 4.8 percentage points on the same period last year.
- Finishing lambs to heavier weights is difficult this year – hence, the survey indicates a slight rise in lambs intended for light export markets but a drop to the heavy export markets.
- The majority of lambs are still destined for domestic consumers at 42.2%, up 1% on 2006.
- There has been little change in the breed composition for first and second cross lamb production, with the majority of all Merino ewe matings for first cross lamb production being to Suffock or Dorset rams, accounting for 26.1% and 23.8% respectively.
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