Argentinean beef production forecast to contract
28/05/2009
The Argentinean Beef Industry and Trade Association (CICCRA) agrees with forecasts from the Argentinean Rural Confederation (CRA) and local analysts that beef supplies in the country will fall from 2010 onwards.
But in contrast to CRA’s analysis (which stated that Argentina will need to import beef from 2011), CICCRA forecasts high beef price increases at the wholesale and retail level in the domestic market, leading to consumption falling to an annual 55kg/head from the current 70kg/head. To make up the shortfall, CICCRA believes consumption will increase for other meats such as pork and poultry.
According to CICCRA, production will be curtailed in the medium term due to the reduction of the cattle herd (the result of the record slaughter levels and the lack of government support for breeding and restocking activities, controls along the supply chain and export restrictions), increased slaughter of female cattle (which has increased production in the short term, but jeopardises calf output in the medium term), in addition to the government’s support for shortfed product for the domestic market, which has caused in a jump in young cattle slaughter.
Meanwhile, pregnancy and birth rates have remained stable in recent seasons, but have now started to decrease as the remaining female cattle herd is in poor condition following the severe drought that has affected Argentina’s central and northern regions since mid 2008.
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