Trends & analysis
The week in review 10/2/12
High A$ and tight supplies balance markets
- February is shaping up to be a very interesting month for the Australian cattle market, with the negative influence of the high A$ and sluggish export demand currently being balanced by the reduced supplies following the widespread rain and flooding. As such, the cattle market was largely steady this week, with the EYCI down 1.5¢ on last week, at 393¢/kg cwt, while heavy steers edged higher.
- The A$ trading around 108US¢ this week has only added to the very sluggish start to the export year, with competition from the US in North Asia only accentuating the issue. Given the challenging export environment at the moment, the contraction in supplies, primarily in Queensland and northern NSW, potentially prevented any further decline in prices, following the cheaper trend in January.
- While cattle numbers are anticipated to increase in the coming weeks, demand will also need to improve for current prices to be sustained. However, if the A$ continues to trade close to all-time high levels, the improvement in export demand may need to be swift to counterbalance the A$ influence and higher supplies.
- Lamb prices softened again this week, as numbers started to flow into markets across the southern states, with total yardings up 5% for the week. The lack of rain in the south has started to influence quality, along with most producers carrying additional numbers following the better season.
- Heavy lambs this week dropped 30¢, to 451¢/kg cwt, while trade lambs contracted 28¢, to 469¢/kg cwt. The only category to register an increase this week was Merino lambs (16-22kg) up 9¢, to 450¢/kg cwt.
Wet summer lingers
- The past week has seen wet conditions continue on the east coast, with more heavy showers in northern NSW and southern Queensland. After weeks of solid rain, many towns throughout this region have experienced a record wet summer, with further rainfall forecast for the next seven days.
- WA has also registered decent rainfall in the south-western corner of the state, and although Victoria and SA recorded little rainfall, much needed showers are forecast for the coming week.
Red Meat 2000 - 2010: A turbulent decade, a vibrant industry
The recently released Red Meat 2000-2010: A turbulent decade, a vibrant industry report takes a look at the event filled decade the Australian red meat industry has faced. From droughts to the discovery of BSE in Japan (2001) and North America (2003), the global financial crisis in 2008 and the currently high A$, the report captures the peaks and troughs in the industry during the last ten years. It also explains the drivers behind these events.
ABARE Farm Survey
The beef, prime lamb and sheep data collected through ABARE's annual agricultural and grazing industries survey (partly funded by MLA) is available in an online database. Users are able to individually tailor combinations of information for all the annual red meat industry physical and financial data collected through the survey.
Australian beef industry
Australian sheep industry
Access the Farm Financial and Physical Database
Statistical databases from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also contain useful information on world production, exports, imports and consumption of agricultural products.
More information
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Email: marketinfo@mla.com.au
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