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HLI Forecast Season 2010 - 2011

A high resolution dynamical atmospheric modelling system was implemented as the operational Heat Load Forecast for the 2010/2011 season. A new web application was also launched where registered MLA feedlot operators could subscribe to heat load forecast products for a site specific location and have this information provided via a secure webpage interface. There were only a small number of high heat load events this season, it appears that the movement of warm and moist tropical air masses to southern parts of the country for extended periods of time results in increased temperature and relative humidity, especially during the night-time, thereby maintaining a high HLI and restricting recovery. 

The relationship between high heat load events and the various scales of motion in the atmosphere provides a new approach to the management of heat load at feedlots. Analysing the climatic drivers of high heat load events will enhance our understanding the dynamic relationship between large circulation patterns, meso-scale features, such as tropical Cyclones and local influences. To accurately predict the evolution of these dynamic systems and their influence on the HLI and AHLU a better understanding of their development, interactions and ultimately their predictability is required. The dynamical model performed well at forecasting the location and magnitude of the synoptic features and weather patterns that influenced the development of high heat load events at the regional and local scale. The update of the GFS data stream and the subsequent initialisation change of the forecast model saw a significant improvement in delivery time and accuracy across all sites and predicted variables.

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Title Size Date published
1.5MB 06/02/2012

This page was last updated on 13/02/2017

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