Wet autumn anticipated for southern Australia - BOM

25 February 2016

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) March to May climate outlook has predicted the continuation of the drier and hotter than average conditions in the north whilst much of southern Australia is expected to exceed median rainfall, particularly in the eastern states.

Northern regions of Queensland, the NT and WA are least likely to see the much rain, particularly during March, with less than 20% chance of above median rainfall. Cape York and the Top End have less than a 20% chance of exceeding the median rainfall, the Gulf and the Pilbara have a 25-35% chance, while central and southern areas of Queensland, NT and WA have a 50-55% chance of better than median rain.

Southern states are forecast to experience a wet March to May period, with all areas of SA, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania in with a 50-65% chance of higher than average rainfall ­– southern SA, western Victoria and central to western NSW the most likely regions.

These forecasts are a consequence of a warmer than average Indian Ocean and waters around Australia, and the continuing break down of El Nino, which is expected to end in the second quarter of this year.

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