Neutral spring rainfall outlook for most of the country – BOM

30 August 2016

As highlighted in the latest three month climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), ‘above average’ spring rainfall (September to November) is likely across large parts of Northern Australia, while most other regions of the country have a roughly equal chance of a wetter or drier three months ahead.

September is likely to be wetter in southern NSW, southern Tasmania and northwest WA, while southern WA and an isolated pocket in north Queensland have a low chance of exceeding the average rainfall during the month.

For the September to November period, the BOM report a 75% chance for most parts of central and eastern NSW receiving upwards of 50mm, and south-east Queensland as much as 100mm.

In Victoria, most southern and eastern regions of the state have a 75% probability of receiving between 100mm and 200mm during spring – with some isolated areas as much as 300mm.

For most parts of SA, the spring outlook of exceeding the median rainfall is fairly neutral, with western and northern parts having a 75% chance of 10-25mm for the three month period. The south-east corner of SA, however, is likely to receive up to 100mm. The outlook indicates a 75% chance of western Tasmania receiving up to 600mm, while the eastern half of the states is forecast 100mm over spring.

For most regions in WA, there is a roughly 50% chance of above average rainfall in spring, although the Kimberley has a greater chance of exceeding the rainfall in spring.

Parts of the Top End, central NT and the north Queensland are likely to receive above-average rainfall during spring, with localised areas having a 75% chance of recording up to 100mm over the period.

Despite the shift to a more neutral outlook from the BOM’s previous forecasts, most of the key sheep and cattle producing regions should have sufficient soil moisture stored from good winter rainfall to head into spring.

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