Positive start to summer rainfall for SA and WA - BOM

29 October 2015


According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) latest rainfall outlook, covering the period of November to January, there is likely to be below average rainfall across Victoria and NSW over summer.

Northern Australia is likely to experience a drier than average start to the northern wet season, with the chance of exceeding the median rainfall across the tropics lower than 40% in November. This outlook reflects the strong El Niño currently in the Pacific and very warm Indian Ocean temperatures.

There are, however, positive outlooks for much of WA, SA, NT and western and central Queensland.

  • Most of WA, SA and the NT are forecast to have a wetter than average November to January period, with a 60-80% chance of exceeding the median rainfall, particularly in December.
  • Drier than average conditions are expected across Victoria, NSW, the Pilbara in WA and far north Queensland
  • Western and central Queensland have a promising outlook with a 60% chance of exceeding median rainfall – most likely in December and January. Although, BOM does note that accuracy is low in this region at this time of year.

South of the tropics, temperatures are expected to be warmer. Cooler temperatures are likely in the centre of the Northern Territory, while warmer temperatures are forecast along the southern and eastern coastlines.

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