Wet outlook for the remainder of 2016 – BOM

29 September 2016

Following the second wettest September on record and an early start to the northern wet season, the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) climate outlook for the October to December period points to above-average rainfall for much of the country. The forecast is reflective of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and warmer waters around northern Australia.

The Kimberley, Tasmania, Victoria and southern NSW have the greatest chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the October to December period, while northern NSW, SA, NT, western Queensland and northern WA have a 60-75% chance of receiving above-average rainfall. Southwest WA and northern and coastal Queensland have a roughly equal chance of a wetter or drier than average three months.

The majority of Queensland has a 75% likelihood of 100mm of rain over the three months to December, while western parts of the state are expected to receive 25-50mm. Similarly, the NT has a high probability of measuring 25-50mm, while the northern half of the state has a 75% chance of 100mm and up to 400mm around the Darwin region.

The southwest corner of WA, particularly along the coast, has a strong probability of receiving 25-100mm, with heavier falls most likely across the northernmost parts of the state.

Eastern parts of Victoria and most of the country’s eastern coastline are highly likely to record over 200mm of rain for the coming three months, with isolated pockets of up to 400mm. The remainder of Victoria and NSW have a greater chance of between 25-100mm.

The majority of SA has a 75% likelihood of receiving 25-50mm, particularly in the south-eastern corner of the state. Meanwhile, western Tasmania is likely to measure over 400mm of rain, while the east can expect falls of up to 200mm for the three-month period.

Given the widespread, and in some parts very heavy, spring rainfall – particularly across some of the previously drought-stricken regions – restocker demand is anticipated to remain high over the coming months.

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