Wet start to spring likely – BOM

30 June 2016

The July to September period is likely to be wetter than average for most of Australia, particularly in the south east, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest rainfall outlook. The exceptions are south-west WA and western Tasmania, which have a fairly equal chance of a wetter or drier than average three-months ahead.

The wet start to winter along the east coast looks likely to continue through to September. Southern Queensland and the Cape York Peninsula have a stronger likelihood of above-average rain for the period, while for central parts of the state there is a 55-70% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the three-months.

The entirety of NSW has an 80% probability of above-average rainfall for the three-month interval, with August in particular forecast for a wetter than average month.

The outlook for northern regions of Victoria is for a wetter July to September period than the southern half of the state. In July, however, all of the state has a 65-75% likelihood of exceeding the median rainfall, while in August, the outlook for southern Victoria becomes fairly neutral.

It is a promising outlook for SA, with a 75-80% chance of a wetter than average three-months across the state, while eastern parts of Tasmania hold a 60-70% probability of above-average rainfall.

For central and the northernmost parts of WA, there is a strong likelihood (70-80%) of exceeding the median rainfall in the three-months heading into spring, while the south-west corner of the state has a neutral probability.

Across much of northern Australia, the chance of an early onset of rainfall following the dry season is higher than average. The strongest probabilities are over the Top End of the NT, the Cape York Peninsula, the Kimberley and southeast Queensland. For the Pilbara and southern NT, however, the likelihood of receiving the first rains earlier or later than normal is roughly equal.

If the three month rainfall outlook comes to fruition, it is likely to sustain to the current strong cattle and lamb markets through strong restocking demand and consequent limited availability.  

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