Wetter in the west

31 January 2018

The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) three-month rainfall outlook paints a positive picture for WA, parts of northern Australia and the southeast.

Importantly, this outlook period coincides with the end of the northern wet season and the prospect of above-average rains is promising for WA, across the Top End and north Queensland. Central and western Queensland, however, have a roughly equal chance of a wetter or drier than average three months. If a decent autumn break comes to fruition, it will go a long way to supporting the markets in the coming months.

Feb to April rainfall outlook

For the February to April period, the majority of WA has a 60–65% probability of exceeding the median rainfall. The regions surrounding Port Hedland and up to the Kimberley region, however, have an even greater likelihood of 70–80%.

The Top End and north Queensland have a 55–65% chance of above-average rain for the three months to April. There is a 55% probability for parts of southeast Queensland and eastern NSW, while for eastern Victoria and Tasmania the likelihood is more than 60%.

Breaking it down by month, February has the greatest chance of receiving higher than average rainfall – particularly in WA and across most of southern Australia. Encouragingly, southern Queensland and the majority of NSW and Victoria have a 55–65% likelihood of a wetter month.

March has a more neutral outlook – with a 55–60% chance of above median rainfall across large parts of WA, western SA and NT, southern Victoria, Tasmania and southeast Queensland. The remainder of the country, including most of NSW, hangs in the balance.

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

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