Wetter outlook for the west – BOM

30 July 2015

The latest three-month rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has raised the odds of a drier than average August to October period for south-eastern Australia and the northernmost regions of the country.

In contrast, there is a higher chance of above-average rainfall for central and southern WA, and into SA, over the three months to October. The outlook for the remainder of the country is fairly neutral.

The August to October outlook is reflective of above average sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and the El Niño pattern over the Pacific.  

  • The majority of Queensland has a 40-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall, while the northern parts of the Cape York Peninsula are forecast to experience a much drier than average three-month period
  • Southern Victoria has a 20-35% chance of above average rainfall, while northern parts of the state are neutral
  • Most of NSW has an equal chance of a wetter or drier three months, except for the north east corner of the state, which has a 35% chance of exceeding median rainfall
  • Western and central SA have a 60-65% chance of above-average rain, while the eastern parts have a neutral to drier outlook
  • Most of southern and central WA have a 60-70% chance of a wetter than average three months, while drier conditions are forecast for the northernmost parts of the state
  • The rainfall outlook for Tasmania is mostly below-average, particularly in the western parts, which have only a 25% likelihood of exceeding the median

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