What’s in store for summer

01 November 2017

Welcome rainfall across much of eastern Australia in October has sparked a recovery in the cattle and sheep markets. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) opened October at 508¢/kg carcase weight (cwt) and rose to finish the month at 573.25¢/kg cwt. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) also responded favourably to the improved conditions, increasing from 605¢ at the beginning of October, to 623¢/kg cwt come the end of the month.

While there have been indications of a La Niña event developing, which typically would bring above average rainfall to eastern Australia in late spring and summer, opposing climate drivers have changed the outlook.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s recently released rainfall outlook for November to January points to a drier than average end to spring for western and southern Australia in particular, followed by a fairly neutral December for most of the country.

The chance of receiving above average rainfall in November is less than 35% for most of WA, SA and Victoria. NSW has a 35-40% likelihood of exceeding median rainfall for the month, while most of the NT and Queensland has a slightly higher chance, at 40-50%.

December is somewhat more positive – with the majority of the country having a roughly equal probability of a wetter or drier end to 2017.

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