Input Requirements for Cattle Feedlot Industry Volume 2: Base Book

Summary

The Meat Research Corporation has commissioned a study into input requirements of the cattle feedlot industry. The research results are presented in two volumes. This is Volume 2, "The Base Book", which aggregates source data and statistics and documents the specific outcomes the five basic research modules.

Summary and an industry strategy is presented in Volume I. Module 1 reviews the factors thought capable of exerting a significant impact on the production and trade in Australian beef over the coming ten years, These factors have been used to define the scenarios modelled via the Global Meatlndustry (GMl) Model. The five modelled scenarios are described, including "base case", "optimistic", "pessimistic", "FMD free South America" and "high wool price tillate 1990's".

Module 2 assesses the prospects for global beef markets to year 2005 through the use of the GMI Model which captures the main demand and supply features of the Industry in an interactive fashion for a number of plausible scenarios (described in Module I) and sensitivity test key parameters. Tile analysis distinguishes at an aggregate level granted and grassfed beef production as carcase weight equivalents (cwe) in respect of supply and demand in Australia, other competitive supplying countries and major country markets. The present value of Australia's granited beef exports is presented.

Module 3 disaggregates the overall beef demand, described in Module 2, into specified beef products by market. Tile market disaggregation includes product specification within the domestic grainfed market and product specification for the Japanese and Korean gramfed export markets. Grassfed markets are identified only as either domestic or export. The projected demand by product specification and by market is translated into animal numbers and different types of cattle required.

Module 4 ascertains cattle supply options to year 2005. Consideration is given to disaggregation of the herd from existing ABS data on a regional basis and according to breed and animal type. Supply shifts, produced by such factors as changing slaughter weights, processing yields, age of turnoff, mortality, productivity, culling, genetics and husbandry practices are considered.