Finished lamb prices hit record highs despite tight seasonal supply

All major lamb indicators reached record highs

Lamb production remains seasonal with predictable fluctuations throughout the year in finished lamb availability. Supply is typically lowest in winter, driving prices up before easing with the new-season lamb arrivals in spring. Market movements in 2025 are underpinned by this seasonal dynamic.

National lamb prices are currently at record high levels. The National Light Lamb Indicator (924¢/kg cwt), National Trade Lamb Indicator (1,049¢/kg cwt) and National Heavy Lamb Indicator (1,041¢/kg cwt) all surged as winter’s traditional supply tightens. Light lamb prices have particularly strengthened due to demand for available finished stock.

Processor activity shifted to volume-driven procurement

Processor procurement shifted with decreased supply. High availability allows for targeted purchasing by weight category but current conditions are prompting a broader, volume-driven approach as processors seek to maintain throughput.

Processing capacity has lifted to meet lamb supply over the past three years of flock rebuild. Average weekly slaughter in 2025 sits at 471,000 head according to National Livestock Reporting Service (NLRS) reporting. With seasonal supply constraints, some processors will soon enter their expected winter shutdown period.

Trade lambs now out-price heavy lambs

Heavy and trade lamb indicators both exceeded 1,000¢/kg cwt for the first time, reflecting sustained demand for finished lambs across domestic and export markets. The Trade Lamb Indicator (1,049¢/kg cwt) notably passed the Heavy Lamb Indicator (1,041¢/kg cwt), going against a three-year trend. While the United States, Australia’s largest lamb market, typically favours carcases exceeding 30kg cwt, the current shift may reflect tighter trade-weight supply, increased domestic demand and mid-weight export competition.

Historically, price strength persists through winter until new-season lamb arrivals. With all three major indicators at record levels, ongoing processor activity and supply dynamics will be key to how the market evolves through the seasonal low-turnoff period.

Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst