Hold back or sell early? How lamb producers responded to 2025 conditions

12 Mar 2026

Key points

Lamb sales in the second half of 2025 were lower than producers expected.
Top three selling decision influences were weather, lamb performance and stronger 2026 price expectations.
Some lambs were carried into 2026, lifting first-half sales expectations slightly.

Australia’s lamb turn-off in late 2025 came in below producer expectations from earlier in the season, with the latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey PULSE report revising second-half lamb sales to 14.3% below the October forecast. The result indicates a slower flow of lambs than anticipated, as weather, lamb performance and producer confidence around 2026 pricing all influenced selling decisions.

The February survey showed many producers changed course after the October outlook. At a producer level, 40% sold fewer lambs than expected, 20% sold more and 39% sold their planned number. This highlights how quickly on-farm conditions and market signals shift producer behaviour, particularly when producers are weighing up feed availability, lamb finish and price outlook.

State-by-state results show downward revision

The national revision was reflected across the major lamb-producing states. In NSW, lamb sales through to 31 December 2025 were 14% lower than expected in October. Victoria’s estimate was also revised 14% lower, while SA fell 20% below the earlier forecast. Together, those three states accounted for most of the downward revision and highlighted how broadly conditions affected producer marketing plans.

Weather and prices drive selling decisions

For those who sold fewer lambs than planned, weather was the biggest factor in the change. The most common weather-related reason was ‘effects on lamb performance’, followed by producers holding lambs back because they expected stronger prices in 2026. Others reported having fewer lambs available than anticipated, while some said lambs were not yet ready to meet sale specifications. Harvest and general farm workload also played a role in delayed sales for some businesses.

Not all producers moved in the same direction. Among those who sold more lambs than expected, the biggest reason was stronger-than-anticipated prices. Others said they had more lambs available than forecast or that favourable weather helped lambs perform and reach sale condition earlier than expected.

What can producers expect in 2026?

Looking ahead, the report suggests some lambs not sold in late 2025 are now expected to be marketed in the first half of 2026. Revised lamb sales for January to June 2026 are estimated at 11.09 million head, slightly above the 10.55 million October forecast. That indicates supply has not disappeared, but shifted later, as producers adjusted timing in response to seasonal and market conditions.

Selling channel preferences remain broadly unchanged. Producers expect most first-half 2026 lamb sales to go through saleyard auction, followed by over-the-hooks sales. Smaller volumes are expected to move through paddock sales, online platforms and forward contracts.

For producers, the key takeaway is that supply plans remain flexible. Seasonal conditions, lamb performance and price expectations continue to shape when lambs are marketed, and that timing can change quickly as conditions evolve.

Access the full report Sheep Producers Intention Survey PULSE – February 2026 report.

Attribute content to: Emiliano Diaz, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst   

Information is correct at time of publication on 12 March 2026.

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