Modelling of OJD Extension of project to include economic analysis and preparation of an existing package.

Summary

RESULTS

1. Workshops/presentations were undertaken as follows:

12 February, 2003 – NSW Agriculture, Orange

20 February, 2003 – National OJD Technical Advisory Group, Canberra

27 February, 2003 – Producer field day, Kangaroo Island

28 February, 2003 – SA OJD Advisory Committee and PIRSA staff, Adelaide

13-14 March, 2003 – Victorian OJD Advisory Committee and Primary Industries staff, Melbourne

26 March, 2003 – Tasmanian Advisory Committee and DPIWE staff

2. A range of scenarios were developed for both flock and regional models, and were discussed at the regional workshops. Additional scenarios were also developed following these discussions, and the original scenarios were modified and refined as necessary. There was considerable interest expressed at the workshops and some very valuable discussions evolved.

3. Advisory material was prepared on the following topics, based on the scenarios developed and presented at the workshops, and suggested refinements and additions. Draft material was prepared for MLA to develop further, on the following topics:

Modeling the spread of OJD

Patterns of disease – basic scenarios and costs of unrestricted disease

The tip of the iceberg

Control options – vaccination, low-efficacy vaccination, management and test-and-cull

Cost of disease

Vaccination options – high and moderate prevalence scenarios

Early vaccination and vaccination of adults

Vaccination plus management

5. Copies of annotated presentation slides were prepared in PowerPointP®P, for further development into standard presentations by MLA.

4. A summary of the modifications made to the flock model to incorporate economic analysis is provided in Appendix 1, and a copy of the revised model was provided to MLA.

5. Some minor revisions were also made to the regional spread model, and a copy of the revised model was provided to MLA.