Heat load forecast service 2018-19

Summary

Heat stress in feedlot cattle can have a deleterious effect on cattle performance and in extreme cases lead to cattle death. The National Feedlot Accreditation Scheme requires that feedlots have a heat stress management plan in place to cope with weather events that can lead to excessive heat loads. The Cattle Heat Load Toolbox, developed by Katestone and now operated by Weather Intelligence (a Katestone Company), alerts feedlot operators of impending adverse weather conditions that could lead to excessive heat load in feedlot cattle.

The toolbox is web-based and provides access to weather and heat load forecasts out one week and risk assessment programs. The service is underpinned by over 17 years of research into cattle heat load funded by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA). The Cattle Heat Load Toolbox brings all this research together and uses a world class weather forecasting system to generate accurate forecasts across Australia. This service provides useful and practical information to help feedlot operators manage heat stress in cattle through advanced warning of adverse conditions. Thus, allowing operators time to undertake appropriate actions to mitigate the risk of heat stress when alerted.

Katestone has been providing this service for over 12 years and in that time the service has grown from 16 to 347 forecast locations (including 66 public sites). The forecast for the service is generated using the Weather Research & Forecasting model. The system is monitored by Weather Intelligence scientists throughout the summer season and assessed for performance in predicting the location, magnitude and duration of heat load events. The system has proven to accurately predict these key features and alert the relevant operators of the impending situation.

There are currently 591 subscribers, 274 user sites (271 feedlots and 3 abattoirs) registered to use the forecasting service, covering nearly a million head of feedlot cattle across Australia. This season saw 3 new feedlots register for the service.

Feedlot Operators subscribe to the service free of charge and request a forecast for their feedlot. Subscribers also define risk alert levels suitable to their feedlot management and cattle type and condition through the Risk Assessment Program. Alerts are sent daily by email or SMS to designated recipients (e.g. site managers, veterinarians).

The service provides early warning of potential major heat load events and rapid changes in the HLI through the automated alerts system and regular updates on the web site.

Overall the system performed well in predicting the HLI on an hour by hour basis for much of the forecast period. Feedback from the end of season survey indicates that there is a high level of satisfaction with the forecast accuracy, from most respondents in the survey.

A separate project to update the RAP, a tool used to assess the long-term risk of heat events at individual sites, was also undertaken. Following a detailed verification study and consultation with an ALFA working group it was decided to keep the current RAP until further research is completed. A summary of the work undertaken is presented in this report.

Other MLA Cattle Heat Load Toolbox projects

• B.FLT.4011 – summer 2019-2020 and 2020-2021
• B.FLT.4001 – summer 2017-2018
• B.FLT.0151 – summer 2011-2012
• B.FLT.0365 – summer 2010-2011
• B.FLT.0357 – summer 2009-2010
• B.FLT.0352 – summer 2008-2009
• B.FLT.0346 – summer 2007-2008
• B.FLT.0340 – summer 2006-2007
• FLOT.334 – summer 2005-2006
• FLOT.329 – summer 2004-2005
• FLOT.324 – summer 2003-2004
• FLOT.320 – summer 2002-2003
• FLOT.313 – summer 2001-2002