Lamb supply dynamics shape the market

28 Aug 2025

Key points

Lamb prices have steadied after reaching record highs in early August, with new season lambs driving market activity.
Supply remains tight following earlier drought-driven destocking.
While top-quality lambs continue to attract premiums, overall averages have softened.

Lamb prices reached record levels in early August, with:

heavy lambs at 1,223¢/kg carcase weight (cwt)
trade lambs at 1,208¢/kg cwt
light lambs at 1,020¢/kg cwt
mutton at 762¢/kg cwt.

Now, as new season lambs become available, the market has shown signs of levelling.

New season lambs attract strong prices

New season lambs are generally achieving stronger prices over older drafts, contributing to a plateau in the market. At Wagga, selling prices were:

heavy old lambs - $320–391/head
new season lambs over 30kg - record price of $370/head
new season trade lambs - $222–$292/head
older lambs - $208–$298/head.

Similar trends were seen at Hamilton, with heavy weight lambs selling for $243–$268/head.

A large portion of well-finished lambs have already been sold, while more of the winter stock is now entering yards, lowering average prices. However, top-quality lambs continue to receive strong competition. Yardings remain steady, but overall quality has eased with the season.

Supply dynamics continue to shape market

Recent price strength was partly driven by processors securing supply and meeting contract requirements. Many anticipated a larger pool of sheep would be available, but supply has been tighter than expected. Early destocking during the dry seasonal conditions saw older ewes removed, with producers retaining younger productive breeders.

Expectations of a sharper destock have not materialised. Instead, many producers are holding onto their core breeding flocks to maintain genetics and ensure productivity in the coming seasons. This has reduced the overall lamb crop and contributed to the supply shortage.

Looking ahead, supply dynamics will continue to shape the market. A smaller lamb crop could lend some support to prices, although quality will stay the main competition driver. While the record highs of early August may not be repeated in the short term, limited availability and seasonal shifts suggest the market is likely to remain firm into spring.

Information is correct at the time of publishing on 28 August 2025.

Attribute content to Emily Tan, MLA Market Information Analyst

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