Sheep producer confidence surges as flock expansion plans accelerate
Key points
- Producer sentiment towards the sheepmeat sector has jumped to +78, the highest level since 2022
- Confidence in the wool industry has also improved significantly, with sentiment rising 38 points to +19
- More than half of producers (52%) plan to increase flock size in 2026, up from 40% last year
- South Australia records one of the strongest outlooks nationally, with sentiment at +81 and flock growth forecast across 60% of surveyed producers
The latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey (SPIS), conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI), reveals a sharp rise in producer confidence and strong intentions to grow flocks in 2026, driven by buoyant prices and optimism for improved seasonal conditions.
The October 2025 survey captured feedback from 1,819 sheep producers nationwide, showing overall sentiment for the sheepmeat sector has jumped 36 points to +78, up from +42 in 2024. This marks the highest sentiment score since the survey redesign in 2022.
MLA’s Market Information Manager, Erin Lukey said the results highlight a significant shift in the national flock’s outlook.
“Producers are feeling positive about the next 12 months, with strong lamb prices and expectations of better weather underpinning confidence,” Ms Lukey said.
“Over half of respondents, 52% compared to 40% last year, plan to increase their flock size in 2026, while only 28% expect to reduce numbers.
“This is a clear signal of recovery and growth following challenging seasonal conditions in 2025.”
The main reasons for expansion include expectations of better lambing results next year, retaining more ewes, expanding sheep operations and anticipating good conditions over the next 12 months.
Meat breeds continue to grow, now representing 40% of lambs, while Merinos have remained at 34%. Poor seasonal conditions impacted 2025 marking rates, with Merinos at 74% (down from 81% in 2024), compared to Prime lamb at 115% and Shedding breeds at 101%.
South Australia stands out as one of the most optimistic states in the October 2025 survey.
Sentiment surged 50 points to +81, making SA one of the highest confidence regions nationally.
Sixty per cent of SA producers plan to increase their flock size in 2026, compared to just 24% expecting a decrease.
The state’s positive outlook is underpinned by expectations of improved lambing results, with 56% of SA respondents citing this as a key factor, and operational expansion.
Based off intentions SA’s lamb flock is forecast to grow by 19%, from 4.10 million in 2025 to 4.88 million in 2026, outpacing the national average increase of 11%.
“South Australian producers are leading the charge in confidence and growth intentions. Their outlook reflects strong resilience and readiness to capitalise on better seasonal conditions and market opportunities,” Ms Lukey said.
“Producers and industry stakeholders can explore these findings with the MLA Market Information team in detail at MLA Updates in Adelaide on 20 November.”
Confidence in the wool industry has also improved significantly, with sentiment rising 38 points to +19. While wool production remains low, prices have strengthened, with the Eastern Market Indicator reaching levels not seen since mid-2022.
Producers are cautiously optimistic, with 36% reporting a positive outlook compared to 17% negative. This improvement is expected to influence decisions around flock composition and breeding strategies.
AWI's Head of Domestic Operations, Scott Carmody says the survey results are heartening and reflect positive feedback the company has received from growers.
"The latest survey shows woolgrower sentiment has turned around off the back of stronger prices paid in the auction room over the last six months.
The 38-point improvement in sentiment in a year is welcome news.
Confidence is key not just now but into the future that's reflected in the fact 42% of growers surveyed believe price rises will continue in the year ahead.
The current positive sentiment is being felt right along the wool supply chain, with increasing demand for the Northern Hemisphere winter season".
The SPIS is used to help industry determine wool and lamb production forecasts and to understand the breed composition of the Australian flock on a national, state and regional basis. It is used by processors for budgeting purposes and allows import markets to ascertain short-term supply estimates.
To view the full report, visit: Sheep Producers Intentions Survey
To register for MLA Updates visit: MLA Updates
