Sheep producers show resilience amidst challenges: MLA’s May 2025 Intentions Survey
27 June 2025
The latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey (SPIS), conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI), reveals a significant shift in producer sentiment and flock management strategies across the nation.
This shift is being driven by volatile market conditions, extreme weather events, and regulatory changes, most notably the planned phase-out of live sheep exports.
The survey, which gathered responses from 2,374 producers across Australia in May 2025, shows a net sentiment score of +52 for the sheepmeat industry, up 48 points from the same time last year.
This marks the first time since October 2022 that all states, including Western Australia, have reported positive or neutral sentiment. Western Australia, which had a net sentiment of -64 in May 2024, has now reached neutral ground at 0 net sentiment. Other states’ levels include:
- New South Wales: +60
- Victoria: +58
- South Australia: +56
- Tasmania: +55
- Queensland: +53
- Western Australia = 0
According to MLA’s Senior Market Information Analyst, Erin Lukey, the strong sentiment among sheepmeat producers is closely tied to improved prices across the country.
“Prices have risen significantly, particularly for finished lambs, which has buoyed confidence even as producers face tough seasonal and regulatory conditions,” Ms Lukey said.
“This is especially the case in Western Australia, where the rebound in sentiment has been most pronounced.”
Despite the optimism, producers continue to navigate a range of challenges.
“Drought in the south and flooding in the north are making it more difficult and expensive to maintain large flocks,” Ms Lukey explained.
“Weather remains the most cited factor influencing on-farm decisions, with significant drought in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales reducing pasture availability and increasing feed costs.”
The survey forecasts a 9% reduction in the national breeding ewe flock, from 48.88 million in 2025 to 44.34 million in 2026, and an 11% decline in the wether flock, from 7.67 million to 6.85 million.
These reductions are being driven by strategic downsizing and environmental pressures.
“In Western Australia alone, the breeding ewe flock is forecast to fall by 19%, with 58% of producers in the state planning to reduce numbers,” Ms Lukey said.
“Many producers are taking a more conservative approach. Nationally, 41% of surveyed producers said they will reduce their breeding ewe flock, and 26% plan to reduce their wether numbers.”
The survey also explored the broader factors influencing on-farm decisions.
“Input costs, labour availability, and regulatory pressures, particularly the live sheep export phase-out, are weighing heavily on producers’ minds,” Ms Lukey said.
“While producers in Western Australia are wary of investing in flock growth amid uncertainty about future market access, others are adjusting breeding strategies or retaining more replacement ewes to adapt to changing conditions.”
Despite these challenges, the resilience of the industry remains evident.
“Producers are adapting. Whether it’s retaining more replacement ewes, adjusting breeding strategies, or responding to market demand, the sector continues to evolve,” Ms Lukey said
The SPIS is a critical tool for industry planning, providing valuable insights for producers, processors, and policymakers alike.
“This data helps us understand where the industry is heading and how we can support producers through change,” Ms Lukey concluded.
View a full copy of the May Sheep Producers Intentions Survey here: Sheep Producers Intentions Survey May 2025
