What is the cattle and sheep ABARES forecast?

20 Mar 2026

Key points

ABARES forecasts cattle and lamb values to ease in 2026–27.
Softer prices and lower production are expected to weigh on total value.
Export conditions, processor demand and currency movements are key drivers.

Livestock values forecast to ease from recent highs

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has released its Agricultural Commodities Report for March 2026, outlining its latest forecasts for Australia’s cattle and sheep sectors. The report points to a softer value outlook for both industries in 2026–27, with lower prices and reduced production expected to pull total value below the strong levels recorded in 2025–26.

ABARES forecasts the gross value of cattle slaughter and live exports to fall 14% to $19.6 billion in 2026–27 – down from a record high in 2025–26. A combination of lower prices and reduced production volumes are the decline drivers. After several years of elevated turn-off, cattle availability is expected to tighten (particularly in southern Australia), reducing slaughter and beef output.

Cattle prices are also forecast to ease. The ABARES saleyard indicator price is forecast to average 705¢/kg carcase weight (cwt) in 2026–27 – down 9% year-on-year (YoY). Softer processor demand is expected to be one of the main pressures on the market, particularly as export conditions become less favourable. ABARES also points to weaker beef import demand in major markets (especially Mainland China), in addition to a higher Australian dollar, which is expected to weigh on export competitiveness and returns.

Beef export value is also forecast to be lower, reflecting both reduced export volumes and softer prices. While the value outlook is weaker than last year, it remains strong in longer-term standards.

Sheep and lamb are expected to follow a similar pattern, although values are forecast to remain historically elevated. ABARES forecasts the gross value of lamb and sheep slaughter, wool and live sheep exports to fall 3% to $9.4 billion in 2026–27. Lower sheep meat production is expected to be the main factor behind the decline, as producers retain more breeding stock and slaughter volumes ease.

Lamb prices are forecast to come off their recent highs but remain strong. The National Trade Lamb Indicator is forecast to average 1,040¢/kg cwt in 2026–27, down 5% from 2025–26. The National Mutton Indicator is also forecast to fall 5%, averaging 685¢/kg cwt.

According to the report, several factors are likely to weigh on sheep and lamb prices, including a higher Australian dollar, tighter processor margins and sheepmeat’s high price relative to competing proteins in export markets. That relative price pressure may limit buyer willingness to absorb higher prices, particularly in more price-sensitive markets. At the same time, processor competition for heavier animals and continued flock rebuilding are expected to provide some support.

Overall, the ABARES outlook suggests livestock values will step back in 2026–27, as prices normalise from unusually high levels and lower production limits total value across both cattle and sheep sectors.

MLA will also release its 2026 Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections the week ending 27 March. These projections will provide forecasts for population, slaughter, production and carcase weights, alongside further insights into the Australian livestock production system over the next three years.

2026 Cattle Industry Projections report will be published here.
2026 Sheep Industry Projections report will be published here.

Attribute content to: Emiliano Diaz, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst.   

Information is correct at time of publication on 20 March 2026.

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