Drier outlook for October nationwide – BOM

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The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) three-month rainfall outlook, for the October to December period, shows that the south east corner of the country is expected to experience a drier than average three months, while central Australia and WA is likely to exceed the median rainfall.

The outlook for October is notably drier nationwide, although particularly in the south east where the chance of exceeding the median rainfall during the month is only 20%. For the remainder of the country, the chance of above-average rain in October ranges from 25-35%.

BOM’s forecast for November shows a marked improvement on the previous month, with the majority of eastern Australia fairly neutral. Furthermore, almost all of SA, southern WA and NT have a 55-70% chance of higher than average rainfall during the month. The Cape York Peninsula, the Top End and an isolated pocket near Karratha on the central WA coast, however, still have a high chance of a drier month in November.

Daytime temperatures over the three-month period are likely to be warmer than average across southern Australia and into central Queensland, while northern WA and central NT are expected to experience cooler than average days.

These outlooks are the result of a combination of factors – an established El Niño in the Pacific, a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and warmer temperatures in the Indian Ocean.