P.PSH.1027 - LPP - Developing a framework for tactical decision making to address feed deficits

Summary

The project will increase the profitability of the red meat industry in NSW by increasing certainty of feed supply, better predicting the need for drought feeding at the same time avoiding possible overgrazing and land degradation. Poor management decisions that attempt to adapt to seasonal conditions result in higher variability between years and lower overall returns (Broadfoot et al. 2017). Moving from poor to good flexible management decisions resulted in a 14% increase (and lower variability between years, meaning lower risk) in farm profit. In the HRZ of south eastern Australian, with a 20% adoption rate it is estimated there will be a $25.4 million (NPV) benefit to the industry with a BCR of 40:1 over the next 10 years. There is still 22:1 benefit at half the adoption rate and 15% lower benefits. The tactical decisions assessed by Broadfoot et al. were mainly related to the sale time of lambs and adjusting ewe numbers based on seasonal conditions, with all additional costs included (e.g. feeding and livestock sale). In the rangelands, Stanford Smith and Foran (1992) examined the economic effect of alternative destocking strategies in the face drought. They found that a tactical destocking by 20% due to impending drought increased the accumulated cash surplus by 75% over a 10 year period on an 80,000 ha property that carries 14,600 sheep in an average year. The NSW rangelands contain about 19.5 million ha that are used for livestock production.

In southern Australian grazing systems, vegetation growth and available feed vary substantially within (Moore 2009) and between years (Chapman et al. 2009) whereas livestock numbers and demand are generally more consistent. The considerable year-to-year variability in available feed is driven by the variability of climate that predominately influences soil water (Chapman et al., 2009). Plant growth is least variable in winter, when solar radiation limits growth, and in early spring, when soil moisture accumulated over winter sustains growth even with limited rainfall. Rainfall declines and evapotranspiration increases through summer and autumn, and in some locations there is rarely sufficient rainfall to sustain growth at that time.

Objectives

This project aims to objectively assess different trigger points and associated strategies for prioritising limited feed. Producers will be able to formulate informed destocking and supplementary feeding policy to improve economic and environmental outcomes. The project has modelled a matrix of farming systems (north to south and east to west) in south-eastern Australia to determine the effectiveness of different strategies. The intended outcome is the development of a web-based learning tool that is accessible to farmers to integrate information.
Other outcomes of this project include:
• Tactical management options and trigger points objectively assessed using modelling and whole-farm economics on a matrix of sites from the rangelands to the HRZ of south-eastern Australia.
• A web-based interactive learning tool to objectively assess the type and timing of tactical decisions for use by producers and extension professionals.

Key findings

Producer consultations highlighted that producers largely use value-based judgements for decisions and recognised the importance of the process and critical dates in decision making.
Key themes from the consultation include:
• Strategic preparation in good years by developing containment feeding lots, developing grain storage or investing in farm management deposits (FMDs).
• Tactical response to year-to-year variability by clearly understanding available feed compared to livestock demands, incremental adjustments to stocking rates with sale of the appropriate class of livestock, calculating immediate and future impact of decisions, looking for opportunity to grow extra feed when moisture is available and understand agistment options.

Benefits to industry

The understanding in this project and the tool combined with a full adoption plan will contribute to an increase in the profitability of the red meat industry in south eastern Australia by increasing certainty of feed supply, better predicting the need for drought feeding at the same time avoiding possible overgrazing and land degradation. The red meat industry will also benefit from human development as producers become more confident in making better tactical management decisions to adapt to seasonal conditions. As a result of better stocking management decisions, animal welfare conditions could be improved by reducing stress caused by overstocking during times of feed deficit.

MLA action

The current research could be further developed by MLA to increase the impact to industry in a number of ways. This includes:
• Increasing the number of sites and farming systems in the tool to broaden it’s relevance.
• Examine the impact of future climate scenarios, to determine whether the recommendation based on historic conditions is relevant under projected future climates, particularly where the intensity and length of extremes will likely increase.
• The role of new farming systems (e.g. with a new feedbase or livestock genetics or production system) can also be examined to determine whether they enhance the tactical management options available to producers or alter the timing of when key decisions are made in the farming system.

Future research

There is a clear need for an adoption phase to ensure the estimated impact of this project is possible. This will first require a wider validation of the tool with producers and adjustment to their needs. This validation will involve evaluating the tool with individual producers from each of the groups that were part of project, plus additional producers who were not part of the current phase of the project. This will also involve the competition of the approach used with the SGS model for the rangelands to be completed at Broken Hill.

The tool has been developed in an Excel® format, which can be hosted on websites in its current form. The Excel® format was chosen so that the tool can be developed into a web frontend with existing software (e.g. stockplan) for producer to calculate the impact of their own drought scenarios. This redevelopment of drought management software is currently being undertaken by NSW DPI. Having these two components was identified by advisors as being important for the impact of the tool.