L.MXF.0003 - Climate ready mixed systems – low rainfall farming
Growing season rainfall since 2000 has been 14–20% lower in the low and medium rainfall zones of Western Australia's Wheatbelt than pre-2000.
| Project start date: | 24 July 2024 |
| Project end date: | 30 June 2025 |
| Publication date: | 24 June 2025 |
| Project status: | Completed |
| Livestock species: | Sheep, Lamb |
| Relevant regions: | Southern Australia, Western Australia, Eastern Australia |
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Summary
The purpose of this project was to review future risks and opportunities for the low and medium rainfall mixed farming zones of Western Australia.
Objectives
1. Review previous literature and RD&A activities to assess how these have informed current mixed farming practices.
2. Describe limitations of current mixed farming practices in relation to adapting to climate variability and other environmental and social challenges.
3. Identify short-, medium- and long-term RD&A opportunities for the low and medium rainfall mixed farming zones of WA to address objective 2. The recommendations to include a range of risk timeframes, a high-level consideration of economic value, barriers to success and scalability across southern Australia.
Key findings
Modelling indicated that most profitable options under all climate change scenarios involved a continued cropping priority with maintenance or a decrease in livestock and retirement of unprofitable land. This was in line with producer expectations where, even with changes in rainfall and temperature, predictions were that crops could be profitably produced, and that scientific and technical improvements would offset any reduction in production potential.
The project also identified the following as non-climate risks to production and profit:
• Land and water risks – soil constraints (acidity, water repellence, compaction), secondary dryland salinity, wind and water erosion, herbicide resistance and lack of high-quality water.
• Social licence to operate – biodiversity, soil health and carbon, animal welfare, greenhouse gas production, chemical use and environment, social and governance risk to finance.
• Resource inputs and support – land prices, labour, fertiliser, chemical and machinery costs and declining research and extension support.
Few of the non-climate risks are systematically explored in mixed farming systems models. This is partially associated with differences between models (some are more biological in focus while others are more strongly economic in focus), historical investment in enterprise-specific models and challenges associated with managing complexity in modelling.
Benefits to industry
The development of future scenarios provided the basis for identification of new investment categories to support farming toward 2050 (see below). To align with the commissioned scope of this project (mixed farming systems), the priority categories were directed towards Scenario 2 with relevance to Scenario 3 and potential interest from both cropping and livestock stakeholders. Although Scenario 3 (Livestock with opportunistic cropping) was not selected as a priority by producers, consultants or researchers, the large decreases in rainfall (growing season and annual), higher average temperatures, higher evaporation and more hot days (associated with RCP8.5) may mean a significant change in the farming system is required. On current knowledge this would mean a mosaic of opportunistic crops, grazing livestock and natural capital within a difficult working and living environment. It is possible that some Scenario 3 livestock production specialists integrate their systems with crop dominant enterprises at a regional scale.
MLA action
Ongoing priority development aligned with the findings of this review.
Future research
Six investment categories were developed with 30 research topics. These were presented for further discussion and development to representatives of Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) and the Western Australia Agricultural Research Collaboration (WAARC). Of most interest were options for improved system flexibility to deal with an uncertain climatic and operational environment, improved dual use crops and more legume break options to benefit both crops and animals. The research topics that were ranked highest across the research sectors were:
• Forage strategies for failed/failing crops (silage or hay with a focus on quality).
• Grazing vegetative legume crops (e.g. vetch, lupins). Legumes should fix nitrogen and have herbicide requirements to complement cropping systems.
• Improved LRZ legume pastures (break crops) for profitable livestock and crop production, soil health and biological diversity. Pasture legumes should regenerate, fix nitrogen and have herbicide requirements to complement cropping systems.
• Improved models for understanding crop/livestock integration and risk and volatility at both paddock and whole-farm scales, alongside the advancement of AI tools to assist in complex decisions regarding management of mixed farming systems.
Under a higher climate change and non-climate risk profile there were also the following strategies seen as more relevant to scenario 3, livestock producers and MLA:
• virtual fencing (for optimal utilisation and management of large cropping paddocks)
• desalination for livestock water, small scale irrigation and feed gap management
• opportunistic livestock systems for uncertain seasons (trading, breeding, feedlots).
More information
| Project manager: | Joe Gebbels |
| Contact email: | reports@mla.com.au |
| Primary researcher: | CSIRO |
