More wet conditions on the way
11 August 2022
Key points:
- The most recent three-month forecast is predicting a high chance of above-average rainfall for large parts of Australia’s grazing land.
- The BOM has indicated a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway.
- Northern Australia is forecast to experience above-average maximum temperatures, pressuring water stores and limiting pasture availability.
On 4 August, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) updated its climate outlook for the next three months.
This update indicates rainfall is likely to be above the median levels for most of Australia, along with maximum temperatures. This will be particularly felt in the tropics, the west and far south-eastern regions of the nation.
Meanwhile, parts of the eastern and southern areas of South Australia are expected to experience below median temperatures.
Negative IOD event
The BOM have also said that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is currently underway, creating warmer than average waters in northern Australia. The BOM expects this to continue into late spring, which will increase the chance of above-average winter to spring rainfall in many regions across the nation. The negative IOD event will also increase the likelihood of warmer days and nights in the north.
The map below shows the historical average rainfall between 1981 and 2018 for August to October.
When comparing this to the forecast rainfall, it is clear that the east coast and the south are in for wet times in the coming months.
Other predictions
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook forecasts a 50% chance of another La Niña later in 2022, with three out of seven models predicting it could be here by early spring.
Meanwhile, the Southern Annular Mode is likely to remain neutral or turn weakly positive over the next few weeks. This could increase the chance of below-average rainfall in the south-west and south-east parts of the nation, while increased rainfall is likely to be seen in the east.
The season ahead
In light of this, good seasonal conditions are expected to continue for much of Australia moving into spring. This will set up the livestock industry well for the finished quality of new season lambs and cattle moving through the warmer months.
Above-average rainfall and warmer air temperatures promote increased pasture growth from warmer soil temps and allows for a higher retention of livestock on-farm. This will also help with the grain and feed production system and could help yields moving into harvest for the 2022 winter crop.
