Weekly cattle and sheep market wrap

Slaughter

For the first full market week of 2023, slaughter volumes across most categories improved strongly. This indicates a large supply of slaughter-weight animals as producers rebuild their flocks and herds. Week-on-week, cattle numbers have improved by 62%, or 31,300 head, indicating that stock held back due to weight gain performance are beginning to hit the market. Comparing year-on-year volumes, numbers are higher by 32%, or 19,500 head, indicating a strong start to 2023.

As forecast by the October 2022 Sheep Producer Intention Survey results, lamb slaughter volumes have begun in earnest. The survey projected that 46% of the 2022 lamb crop will be delivered to market in the first half of 2023.

Slaughter volumes rose 37%, or 102,470 head, week-on-week and were higher by 18% or 59,000 head compared to the corresponding week in 2022.

As a result of flock growth and ample supply, mutton slaughter rates have begun 2023 strongly.  Slaughter volumes week-on-week rose 36%, or 38,000 head. In comparison to the same time last year, numbers have increased by 60,000 head or 70%, indicative of how strong the current supply of stock is. The current supply is reflected in a reduction of processor demand for mutton and therefore the softer prices for mutton.

Mutton market

Several drivers are influencing the downturn seen in mutton prices:

• Due to weaning, lower quality and cull ewes are being made available to market. As such, prices are reflecting the lower demand due to the quality of animals on offer.
• Large supply to the processing facilities is reducing buyer demand for mutton across all selling platforms and therefore placing downward pressure on price.
• A drier summer affected finished quality of stock presented to market, wethers included.
• Saleyard supply of mutton increasing 21% or 4,700 head week-on-week.

At present, the National Mutton Indicator is operating at 307c – this is a decline of 266c/kg carcase weight or 46% year-on-year. It is important to remember that the indicator was receding from record highs in January 2022, therefore comparing year-on-year results does not accurately reflect average market performance. Compared to the five-year average of 540c, the current indicator is softer by 232c/kg cwt or 43%, a clear indication of the current market conditions.

Cattle Projections webinar 

On Thursday 2 February at 11am AEDT, the MLA Market Information team will be conducting its annual live webinar, presenting on the forecasts for the Australian cattle herd and market in 2023.  

The live webinar will present and discuss the forecasts for:  

• herd size
• slaughter
• carcase weights
• production
• global supply competitors 
• key macro issues for the cattle industry in 2023 
• industry price forecasts. 

To register for the webinar, click here