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Wet winter forecast across Australia

03 June 2021

Key points:

  • Majority of Australia predicted to experience average to above-average rainfall between June and September.
  • Warmer minimum temperatures are forecast for Australia during winter that may promote pasture growth.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to be negative over winter, driving increased rainfall.

The most recent Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) outlook forecasts a wetter-than-average winter for most of Australia, including for winter dominant rainfall areas where the majority of Australia’s sheep flock is located.

The main influence driving the above-average rainfall forecast is a negative IOD. In periods of a negative IOD, the Indian Ocean is warmer along the Australian coast, increasing convection and rainfall over Australia.

Forecast-rainfall-June-Aug-21-BOM.png

Warmer minimum temperatures are also forecast Australia-wide through to September. High temperatures combined with increased rainfall should translate into increased pasture growth, especially in southern Australia.

Forecast minimum temperatures June to August

Forecast-min-temp-June-Aug-2021.png

For producers, increased rain and moderate-to-high temperatures are also expected to lead to higher marking rates and heavier lamb weights.

This recent outlook is encouraging for producers in central Victoria who have experienced a dry autumn. Similarly, it will be welcomed by WA producers who have endured a number of below-average seasons.

This weather forecast underpins MLA’s sheep and cattle projections that forecast both a national flock and herd rebuild in 2021. On the back of this outlook, sheep producers are expected to retain breeding ewes, both old and young, to build out their flocks.

© Meat & Livestock Australia Limited, 2021