Goatmeat supply strength meets market shift

26 May 2026

Since 2020–21, the goatmeat sector has experienced rapid growth in both production and market expansion, alongside significant over-the-hooks price volatility. Prices fell from above $10/kg carcase weight (cwt) to below $3/kg cwt, before recovering to around $6/kg cwt.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, attention is turning to whether current high supply levels can be sustained and how export markets will respond amid increased prices and global uncertainty. The National Goatmeat Forecasting Committee has flagged the potential for supply to slow down in 2026, with third-quarter results expected to provide the backdrop to current and emerging key industry trends.

Supply and processing

Goat supply to processing has grown for four consecutive financial years, reaching 4.18 million head in 2024–25. This represents a 290% increase since 2020–21, when herd rebuilding constrained throughput. Further, processing trends continue to track positively with:

Continued growth into 2025–26, with 2.43 million goats processed between July and December 2025, up 22% on the same period the previous year.
A new quarterly processing record of 1,289,646 head – marks the fifth consecutive quarter above 1 million head. Well above historical levels of less than 800,000 head/quarter before the last quarter of 2023–24.
Growth driven by the processing sector expanding in response to increased production and strong international and domestic demand.
Recent high throughput supported by processors sourcing goats to offset low sheep availability, and by producers being motivated to market goats at improved prices and lower minimum carcase weight requirements.

The Forecasting Committee projected total processing of 4.16 million head for 2025–26, with 58% of this already achieved in the first half of the year. Data until the end of December 2025 has not yet shown signs of a slowdown, with further monitoring underway.

Export markets

Export performance has strengthened in line with increased production, with both volume and value reaching record highs in 2024–25.

Australia exported 55,486 tonnes to 39 destinations, valued at $384 million. This compares to 15,712 tonnes exported to 16 markets in 2020–21, valued at $159 million, highlighting the scale of market expansion. Looking at Australian goat meat’s specific markets:

The United States, South Korea and Taiwan have consistently ranked among the top markets, alongside China, Canada, Trinidad & Tobago and Japan.
Demand growth between 2020–21 and 2024–25 has been significant across key markets, including the United States (+149%), South Korea (+444%), Taiwan (+66%), China (+5289%), Canada (+274%), Trinidad & Tobago (+435%) and Japan (+86%).
A broader range of secondary markets has also contributed to growth, including Fiji, Indonesia, Jordan, Jamaica, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and the United Kingdom.
Exports in the first half of 2025–26 totalled 34,308 tonnes, suggesting the industry is potentially on track for another record year, driven largely by strong demand from the United States, South Korea and Canada.

While growth and outlook remain positive in processing and export, it’s worth noting that some markets have shown signs of softening demand, including China (-62%) and Trinidad & Tobago (-13%). This may indicate sensitivity to rising export prices.

Australia’s goatmeat industry has expanded rapidly, underpinned by strong processing throughput and export demand. Industry focus will remain on monitoring supply trends and export performance through 2026, particularly for signs of a slowdown in production and shifting demand across key markets.