G.MAR.0812 Global Meat Industry Model

Summary

​Global Meat Industry Model
The Global Meat lndustry (GMl) Model which utilises a large statistical database is maintained by the Centre for International Economics (CIE) on behalf of MLA on an ongoing 3 year contractual basis.  
It is utilised for a variety of market access, policy, industry research and program evaluation projects.
To successfully conduct various modelling simulations of interest to the Australian red meat industry, the GMI database must be maintained and updated on an annual basis.
The database provides a detailed representation of meat trade, production and consumption for the world meat market.  The database currently covers 22 countries / regions and involves 27,000 data points.
The contracted work also includes an annual 'baseline' forecast run of the GMl model.  The baseline is a plausible set of outcomes for global meat markets from which ‘what if’ questions can be asked to analyse a range of issues, particularly regarding market access, that arise as part of MLA's programs.  It is also utilised to assist with the formulation of industry outlook / projections.  
The contracted specifications include: maintaining the existing GMI database on behalf of MLA; on an annual basis (over the three year span of the consultancy), collate, update, format and incorporate new data for each country / region into the database; test model and modify as necessary; provide written report to MLA on update progress / database status; provide all data including updates electronically to MLA on an annual basis.  
The most recent uses of the model included an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Indian Carabeef industry on Australian exporters and the analysis of the potential benefits for free trade agreements with China, Japan and Korea.  
No report on the GMI is published (although the outputs from simulations are) and the database remains confidential for MLA / industry use / access only.