Developing a livestock export market outlook service

Summary

The key industry drivers in each market were identified and a process for forecasting changes in these drivers was developed. It was found that the drivers were common across most markets and that after regulatory and animal health issues the major consideration driving live export volumes was the landed cost of livestock in each destination. A landed cost forecasting model has been developed which will be a key tool in forecasting live export volumes.  The key drivers were found to be:
Economic conditions and exchange rate movements in importing countries,
Live export and slaughter prices in Australia and importing countries,
Market throughput and forward supply,
Market demand,
Shipping capacity/costs,
Competition from the Australian processing industry,
Exchange rates,
Government policies,
Feedlot capacity/utilisation, feeding costs and in and out cattle prices,
Wet market and overseas supermarket supplies and prices,
Competition from other countries, livestock and protein sources,
Religious and cultural events.
A report template for the cattle and sheep/goats export industries was developed to assist the communication of this information to the live export sector. Information sources were established and key contacts with industry participants were established to assist with the forecasting. The market forecasting service looks to identify movements in export volumes, market specifications, live cattle export prices and key currencies over the medium term (one year forward).