B.CCH.8110 - Forewarned is Forearmed: managing the impacts of extreme climate events (University of Melbourne project)
Tools have been developed to support red meat producers in managing climate extremes.
| Project start date: | 31 August 2017 |
| Project end date: | 29 June 2023 |
| Publication date: | 01 May 2024 |
| Project status: | Completed |
| Livestock species: | Grain-fed Cattle, Grass-fed Cattle, Sheep, Goat, Lamb |
| Relevant regions: | National |
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Summary
Australian farmers and agribusinesses operate in one of the most variable climates of any country in the world, with extreme events and climate variability the largest drivers of fluctuations in annual agricultural production and income.
The project Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA) is equipping farmers and agricultural value chains to proactively manage the impacts of extreme climate events focussed on:
• Identifying areas for improvement in the performance of seasonal climate forecasts.
• Development, trialling, and subsequent operationalisation of new Bureau of Meteorology forecast products for extreme events in the weeks to months ahead.
• Development of risk management packages for extreme events for specific agricultural sectors, and for agriculture more generally.
• Communicating the progress of the project through a variety of media platforms.
• Building project legacy.
Objectives
As a Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA) Project partner, the University of Melbourne (UoM) delivered against Work Packages 3 and 4 of the total four work packages comprising the FWFA project. A structured and iterative consultation process involving Dairy and southern Red Meat Industry Reference Group (IRG) members:
• Identified the extreme events of greatest consequence to their industry.
• Identified appropriate response scenarios to each identified extreme event.
• Evaluated the experimental and operational BoM FWFA products and tools.
The identified response scenarios were subject to farm systems expert analysis (biophysical and economic) to explore the risk mitigation costs and then published as scenarios. Risk packages based on identified information were produced and further legacy material was developed as part of work package 4 for extension. These included farmer talks/workshops, webinars and online presentations, case studies and an eLearn package.
Key findings
• Dairy and southern red meat producers identified and prioritised the same three most important extreme climate events of most consequence: extended wet seasons (wet winters), extended dry (drought) and heatwaves.
• IRG members identified 13 vulnerability areas being pasture, livestock health, livestock condition/productivity, infrastructure, operations, fodder quality/silage, cash flow, crops, social, water supply, soil, environment, biosecurity and social (see next point for latter).
• Social impacts of extreme events were raised but farmers did not volunteer responses. This could be a gap in their expertise that requires further research.
• Improved forecasts of extreme events are required to inform key economic decisions around the timing of selling off stock and buying in feed/water.
• Weather/climate forecast tools are only one of a combination of tools and resources used by farmers in extreme event decision making.
Benefits to industry
• Dairy Australia and Meat & Livestock Australia have expanded detail and information regarding producer’s climate extreme events risks and those of most consequence on-farm.
• The FWFA BoM new extreme forecast products have been promoted across the Australian agricultural networks beyond those industries involved in the project:
o improved understanding of user’s requirements and priorities
o increased consultation and uptake of the FWFA BoM new extreme forecast products.
• Research and experimental prototypes will flow through to other projects backed by industry (e.g. Climate Services for Agriculture).
Future research
Improved climate risk management require three things:
1. better forecasts (models, weather, multiweek, seasonal, climate change))
2. better understanding of forecasts (climate literacy of users and forecast products)
3. farm risk management and adoption (strategies, tactics, tools to better manage risks both with and without forecasts).
More information
| Project manager: | Hilary Connors |
| Contact email: | reports@mla.com.au |
