Producer requirements for weather and seasonal climate forecasting

Summary

This research takes a 'needs first' approach to understand the use of seasonal climate forecasts and where producer knowledge or information gaps exist that would aid improved interpretation and on-farm decision making. The project findings equip the Australian agricultural industry with information to determine the next best areas of investment to improve the interpretation of seasonal climate forecasts.

Objectives

To determine the current and future requirements of red meat, grains, sugar and cotton producers for weather and seasonal climate forecasts.

- Determine what specific actions needs to be taken to address requirements identified through market research.

Key findings

While the majority (82%) of producers surveyed accessed a seasonal climate forecast, only half (59%) used this information to make a decision on-farm.

Overall, two thirds (61%) of producers surveyed felt seasonal climate forecasts are too unreliable to pay attention to. This suggests that while producers are clearly in the habit of interacting with the forecasts, there is a gap in confidence.

Producers surveyed offered a number of consistencies when asked what would improve the utility of short-term and Seasonal Climate Forecasts, including:

• Primary focus on rainfall presentation, including assurance that it is correctly interpreted. Rainfall likelihood and amount was overwhelmingly the most important aspect of any forecast amongst producers surveyed, and its perceived reliability the biggest single factor in determining producers’ propensity to utilise forecasts overall.

• Inclusion of straight-forward and accessible interpretation of forecast information, read in plain language.

Benefits to industry

Climate is the biggest individual driver of production variability in agriculture and accounts for one-third to two-thirds of annual global crop yield variability. Interpretation of seasonal climate forecasting information can significantly affect producer profitability and risk management. Therefore, there is substantial industry benefit from ensuring the forecasts are expressed in a way that equips farmers with the optimal insight to inform their decision making at critical junctures in business planning.

MLA action

MLA has published a final report communicating the research findings. The report has also been reviewed by the Bureau of Meteorology to enable knowledge transfer to inform seasonal forecast product design and refinement.

Future research

Future research is likely to be directed at seasonal forecast product design and refinement around two key areas, including:

• Primary focus on rainfall presentation, including assurance that it is correctly interpreted. Rainfall likelihood and amount is overwhelmingly the most important aspect of any forecast, and its perceived reliability the biggest single factor in determining producers’ propensity to utilise forecasts overall.

• Inclusion of straight-forward and accessible interpretation of forecast information, read in plain language.